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在溫度監(jiān)測(cè)內(nèi)，魯大師顯示計(jì)算機(jī)各類硬件溫度的變化曲線圖表。溫度監(jiān)測(cè)包含以下內(nèi)容(視當(dāng)前系統(tǒng)的傳感器而定)：

CPU溫度，顯卡溫度(GPU溫度)，主硬盤溫度，主板溫度。

勾選設(shè)備圖標(biāo)左上方的選擇框可以在曲線圖表中顯示該設(shè)備的溫度，溫度曲線與該設(shè)備圖標(biāo)中心區(qū)域顏色一致。

點(diǎn)擊右側(cè)快捷操作中的“保存監(jiān)測(cè)結(jié)果”可以將監(jiān)測(cè)結(jié)果保存到文件。

小提示:你可以在運(yùn)行溫度監(jiān)測(cè)時(shí)，最小化魯大師，然后運(yùn)行3D游戲，待游戲結(jié)束后，觀察硬件溫度的變化。

itle：Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

標(biāo)題：現(xiàn)在可以從全球范圍內(nèi)任何一天的天氣中檢測(cè)到氣候變化

作者：Sebastian Sippel?1,2,3*, Nicolai Meinshausen 2, Erich M. Fischer1, Enik? Székelyg1, and Reto Knutti1

1 Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.

2Seminar for Statistics, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.

3Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research, ?s, Norway.

4Swiss Data Science Center, ETH Zurich and EPFL, Lausanne, Switzerland.

E-mail: sebastian.sippel@env.ethz.ch[1]

雜志：Nature Climate Change, volume 10, pages35–41(2020)

DOI： https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0666-7[2]

原文摘要

長此以往，氣候科學(xué)家傳遞給公眾的都是“天氣不是氣候”的觀念，氣候變化也被框定為天氣分布的變化緩慢地出現(xiàn)于這數(shù)十年里主要的氣候變率中1-7。然而，現(xiàn)階段考慮全球性的天氣則是一個(gè)未知的領(lǐng)域。在這里我們基于全球觀測(cè)的單日溫度和水汽來檢測(cè)外部驅(qū)動(dòng)氣候變化的“指紋”所得到的結(jié)論是：地球作為一個(gè)整體正在變暖。我們的檢測(cè)方法通過統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)習(xí)和氣候模型模擬來封裝每日溫度和濕度的空間模式與關(guān)鍵的氣候變化指標(biāo)（例如，全球年平均溫度或地球的能量失衡之間）之間的關(guān)系。觀測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)投影到這種關(guān)系中來檢測(cè)氣候變化。根據(jù)一年的數(shù)據(jù)，從2012年初和1999年以來觀測(cè)到的全球記錄中的任何一天都可以檢測(cè)到氣候變化的“指紋”。即便是忽略長期全球變暖的趨勢(shì)，檢測(cè)的結(jié)果也是很穩(wěn)健可靠的。這是對(duì)傳統(tǒng)氣候變化檢測(cè)的補(bǔ)充，但也為區(qū)域天氣事件的交流打開了更廣闊的視野，改變了氣候變化的敘述方式：盡管幾十年來局地的天氣變化正在出現(xiàn)，但現(xiàn)在就能即時(shí)檢測(cè)到全球氣候變化。

Abstract

For generations, climate scientists have educated the public that ‘weather is not climate’, and climate change has been framed as the change in the distribution of weather that slowly emerges from large variability over decades1-7. However, weather when considered globally is now in uncharted territory. Here we show that on the basis of a single day of globally observed temperature and moisture, we detect the fingerprint of externally driven climate change, and conclude that Earth as a whole is warming. Our detection approach invokes statistical learning and climate model simulations to encapsulate the relationship between spatial patterns of daily temperature and humidity, and key climate change metrics such as annual global mean temperature or Earth’s energy imbalance. Observations are projected onto this relationship to detect climate change. The fingerprint of climate change is detected from any single day in the observed global record since early 2012, and since 1999 on the basis of a year of data. Detection is robust even when ignoring the long-term global warming trend. This complements traditional climate change detection, but also opens broader perspectives for the communication of regional weather events, modifying the climate change narrative: while changes in weather locally are emerging over decades, global climate change is now detected instantaneously.

數(shù)據(jù)、代碼

數(shù)據(jù)[3]

All original CMIP5 data, reanalyses and observations used in this study are publicly available under the following URLs.

CMIP5 model data: https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip5/;

reanalysis:

ERA-Interim (https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era-interim),

NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html),

NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 2 (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis2.html),

Twentieth Century Reanalysis (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/20thC_Rean/);

observations (monthly): GISTEMP temperature dataset, version 3 (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/),

Cowtan and Way (2014) temperature dataset, version 2 (https://www-users.york.ac.uk/~kdc3/papers/coverage2013/series.html),

Berkeley Earth Monthly Land+Ocean temperature dataset (http://berkeleyearth.org/data/), Met Office gridded land surface humidity dataset (HadISDH),

version 4.0.0.2017f (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisdh/);

observations (daily): Berkeley Earth Daily Land temperature dataset (Experimental, http://berkeleyearth.org/data/),

NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST), AVHRR-Only (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oisst).

All intermediate and derived data from these products (extracted CMIP5 fingerprints and daily/monthly time series of the test statistic (that is, obtained by projecting CMIP5 models, reanalyses and observations individually onto the fingerprints)) are available at https://data.iac.ethz.ch/Sippel_et_al_2019_DailyDetection/.

代碼[4]

All computer code to reproduce the main results and all figures and Extended Data figures is available at https://data.iac.ethz.ch/Sippel_et_al_2019_DailyDetection/

圖文

References

[1] sebastian.sippel@env.ethz.ch: mailto:sebastian.sippel@env.ethz.ch[2] https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0666-7: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0666-7[3] 數(shù)據(jù): https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0666-7#data-availability[4] 代碼: https://data.iac.ethz.ch/Sippel_et_al_2019_DailyDetection/