itle：Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

標(biāo)題：現(xiàn)在可以從全球范圍內(nèi)任何一天的天氣中檢測到氣候變化

作者：Sebastian Sippel?1,2,3*, Nicolai Meinshausen 2, Erich M. Fischer1, Enik? Székelyg1, and Reto Knutti1

1 Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.

2Seminar for Statistics, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.

3Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research, ?s, Norway.

4Swiss Data Science Center, ETH Zurich and EPFL, Lausanne, Switzerland.

E-mail: sebastian.sippel@env.ethz.ch[1]

雜志：Nature Climate Change, volume 10, pages35–41(2020)

DOI： https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0666-7[2]

原文摘要

長此以往，氣候科學(xué)家傳遞給公眾的都是“天氣不是氣候”的觀念，氣候變化也被框定為天氣分布的變化緩慢地出現(xiàn)于這數(shù)十年里主要的氣候變率中1-7。然而，現(xiàn)階段考慮全球性的天氣則是一個未知的領(lǐng)域。在這里我們基于全球觀測的單日溫度和水汽來檢測外部驅(qū)動氣候變化的“指紋”所得到的結(jié)論是：地球作為一個整體正在變暖。我們的檢測方法通過統(tǒng)計學(xué)習(xí)和氣候模型模擬來封裝每日溫度和濕度的空間模式與關(guān)鍵的氣候變化指標(biāo)（例如，全球年平均溫度或地球的能量失衡之間）之間的關(guān)系。觀測數(shù)據(jù)投影到這種關(guān)系中來檢測氣候變化。根據(jù)一年的數(shù)據(jù)，從2012年初和1999年以來觀測到的全球記錄中的任何一天都可以檢測到氣候變化的“指紋”。即便是忽略長期全球變暖的趨勢，檢測的結(jié)果也是很穩(wěn)健可靠的。這是對傳統(tǒng)氣候變化檢測的補充，但也為區(qū)域天氣事件的交流打開了更廣闊的視野，改變了氣候變化的敘述方式：盡管幾十年來局地的天氣變化正在出現(xiàn)，但現(xiàn)在就能即時檢測到全球氣候變化。

Abstract

For generations, climate scientists have educated the public that ‘weather is not climate’, and climate change has been framed as the change in the distribution of weather that slowly emerges from large variability over decades1-7. However, weather when considered globally is now in uncharted territory. Here we show that on the basis of a single day of globally observed temperature and moisture, we detect the fingerprint of externally driven climate change, and conclude that Earth as a whole is warming. Our detection approach invokes statistical learning and climate model simulations to encapsulate the relationship between spatial patterns of daily temperature and humidity, and key climate change metrics such as annual global mean temperature or Earth’s energy imbalance. Observations are projected onto this relationship to detect climate change. The fingerprint of climate change is detected from any single day in the observed global record since early 2012, and since 1999 on the basis of a year of data. Detection is robust even when ignoring the long-term global warming trend. This complements traditional climate change detection, but also opens broader perspectives for the communication of regional weather events, modifying the climate change narrative: while changes in weather locally are emerging over decades, global climate change is now detected instantaneously.

數(shù)據(jù)、代碼

數(shù)據(jù)[3]

All original CMIP5 data, reanalyses and observations used in this study are publicly available under the following URLs.

CMIP5 model data: https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip5/;

reanalysis:

ERA-Interim (https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era-interim),

NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html),

NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 2 (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis2.html),

Twentieth Century Reanalysis (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/20thC_Rean/);

observations (monthly): GISTEMP temperature dataset, version 3 (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/),

Cowtan and Way (2014) temperature dataset, version 2 (https://www-users.york.ac.uk/~kdc3/papers/coverage2013/series.html),

Berkeley Earth Monthly Land+Ocean temperature dataset (http://berkeleyearth.org/data/), Met Office gridded land surface humidity dataset (HadISDH),

version 4.0.0.2017f (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisdh/);

observations (daily): Berkeley Earth Daily Land temperature dataset (Experimental, http://berkeleyearth.org/data/),

NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST), AVHRR-Only (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oisst).

All intermediate and derived data from these products (extracted CMIP5 fingerprints and daily/monthly time series of the test statistic (that is, obtained by projecting CMIP5 models, reanalyses and observations individually onto the fingerprints)) are available at https://data.iac.ethz.ch/Sippel_et_al_2019_DailyDetection/.

代碼[4]

All computer code to reproduce the main results and all figures and Extended Data figures is available at https://data.iac.ethz.ch/Sippel_et_al_2019_DailyDetection/

圖文

References

[1] sebastian.sippel@env.ethz.ch: mailto:sebastian.sippel@env.ethz.ch[2] https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0666-7: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0666-7[3] 數(shù)據(jù): https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0666-7#data-availability[4] 代碼: https://data.iac.ethz.ch/Sippel_et_al_2019_DailyDetection/

開啟WSL之旅》中，我們建立了windows10下的Ubuntu子系統(tǒng)，可以在Ubuntu與Windows系統(tǒng)間切換，毫無延遲感。本文介紹兩種終端軟件，MobaXterm與Xshell，與WSL中的Ubuntu建立SSH通道，本方案也適于windows訪問獨立的Linux主機。

準(zhǔn)備工作：

• 1.獲得Ubuntu系統(tǒng)的IP

【開始】中，啟動Ubuntu18.04，在wsl窗口中，執(zhí)行：

ifconfig

eth0:段中的inet后的 172.17.86.219 ，即為本機的IP地址（每次啟動wsl，獲得新地址，后面建立連接用到）

• 2.啟動SSH 服務(wù)

wsl窗口中，執(zhí)行：

sudo service ssh start

啟動ssh server，如果出錯或報沒有此命令，則需安裝SSH server，參考安裝SSH。

sudo service ssh status (檢查是否啟動成功)

安裝SSH

• 1.先更新系統(tǒng)包

sudo apt update

sudo apt upgrade

• 2.安裝SSH服務(wù)

sudo apt remove openssh-server

sudo apt install openssh-server

• 3.修改配置文件

sudo vim /etc/ssh/sshd_config

主要改兩項：

Port: 22 把前面的#注釋去掉，緊接的幾行也可以去掉#

PasswordAuthentication yes 把no改為yes

• 4.重新啟動ssh

sudo service ssh restart

下載地址： https://mobaxterm.mobatek.net/download-home-edition.html

選擇免安裝版（Portable Edition）下載。

MobaXterm會自動檢測到WSL環(huán)境，直接點擊左側(cè)圖標(biāo)，輸入用戶名、密碼，即可快速連接。但下面介紹更一般的用法，手工建立會話連接，這也適用于連接其他計算機上的Linux系統(tǒng)。

如上圖，點擊左上角【Session】，打開如下界面

出現(xiàn)類似問題，可參考準(zhǔn)備工作中的說明，檢查一下ssh的啟動狀態(tài)。

選擇【Yes】后，出現(xiàn)加密方式保存Ubuntu用戶密碼界面，加密密碼至少為7位。

連接成功后，左側(cè)為Ubuntu中的文件列表，可以在其中進(jìn)行文件、目錄操作。右側(cè)為終端，可以在其中執(zhí)行l(wèi)inux命令。

以后每次啟動WSL，可以在建立的連接上，鼠標(biāo)右鍵，【Edit session】，修改ip等參數(shù)。

• Xshell

下載地址： https://www.netsarang.com/en/free-for-home-school/

選擇免費的個人版。

會發(fā)送兩封郵件到你的郵箱，一個是Xshell的鏈接，另一個是Xftp的鏈接。Xftp為內(nèi)嵌入Xshell中，用于文件傳輸，依次下載、安裝。（因為下載的是個人免費版本，在首次啟動Xshell后，會提問是否購買，【關(guān)閉】即可）。

【新建】會話

登錄成功后，即可在右側(cè)窗口執(zhí)行l(wèi)inux命令，左側(cè)會話列表中，選中一會話，鼠標(biāo)右鍵【屬性】中，可修改ip地址。如果要傳輸文件，可點擊下圖中圖標(biāo)，啟動Xftp。

左側(cè)為本地文件窗口，右側(cè)為Ubuntu中文件操作窗口。鼠標(biāo)右鍵，選擇對應(yīng)操作。

MobaXterm與Xshell對比

MobaXterm可以自動檢測WSL，建立連接比較方便。Xshell中的Xftp，相當(dāng)于一個ftp客戶端，文件的操作能力強大。